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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Q3 Growth at 2.5%; Q4 expected 2+%

While old news since we’re already half way done with Q4, Q3 GDP was revised to 2.5% growth vs the initial report of 2% and was a touch above the estimate of 2.4%. Leading the upward revision was a better than expected gain in personal consumption of both durable and non durable goods. Spending on equipment and software was revised up and trade and state and local gov’t spending added more to growth than expected. Spending on commercial structures was revised to a negative reading but residential construction wasn’t as weak as originally thought although was still very negative. The contribution to growth from inventories was a bit less than the initial figure. Real final sales, which take out the influence of inventory changes, rose 1.2%, twice the 1st Q3 look and the best since Q4 ’09. The inflation figures were left unchanged. Expectations for Q4 growth is 2%ish+, still growth but below potential.
---Peter Boockvar

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