Despite the early-morning green hue in the futures, U.S equities are at an inflection point through a technical lens; the S&P is churning under resistance (negative) while the NDX has tested the 200-day eight times (and trying to hold the line). All the while, we're seeing lower highs in the banks (BKX at the 50-day), the Russell (IWM at the 200-day) and the semiconductors (SOX).
The Hold Camp
The banks (BKX), trannies (TRAN), Semis (SOX) and metals (XAU) are all out- performing the broader market (by about 70 bips each). Breadth has been sticky green all session (and tapes that are strong all day with 2:1 internals) tend to end that way. The NDX held the 200day and is trading above that all important level (NDX 2661)
The Fold Camp
Apple (AAPL)which has been a great leading indicatorvis back below the 200day.
The S&P continues to churn and is facing resistance in the S&P 1430-1435 range. My sense, but it's only my sense, is that odds favor a downdraft tomorrow.