It seems clear that from a technical perspective, the uptrend that began in early July has come to an end... The minimum retracement expectation of the July–February rally would be 0.382 or 1,217 on the S&P 500. The more common 0.618 retracement would suggest a move to slightly below 1,140...
If we see some sort of resolution to the crisis in Japan, we should see a nice short-term bounce in the equity market. We are very close to seeing initial support levels kick in for the S&P 500, which would warrant a less negative stance. But any “good news” rally is likely to be brief because as I mentioned in the first paragraph, the trend lines have been broken this time around.
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