Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Bank "profits". Not.

Many of the bailouts, mortgage mods and behaviors we have today exist to serve a single purpose: To allow the banks to kick the can down the road as far as they possibly can when it comes top their dual portfolio of bad mortgages and bank owned Real Estate (REOs)...

Rather than go Swedish, and force a shorter painful pre-packaged bankruptcy process, we have opted to take the long slow route:
1) Banks are slowly rebuilding their capital by borrowing from one branch of government and lending to another. This is a slow process, but its less well unerstood (and hence more politically acceptable) than merely giving Banks capital outright.

2) FASB 157 allows banks to carry all of these structured products made of bad mortgages on their books indefinitely.

3) Banks are carrying lots of housing inventory waiting for a better residential market to emerge 5 or 10 years down the road.
Under normal circumstances, the bad mortgage process goes Delinquency (late payments) Default (90 days behind), Foreclosure (legal proceedings to enforce the note).

Once a home goes into foreclosure, the accounting changes: It is now a loss that must be written down immediately. That hits the banks capital levels. Consider what the next 3-5 million foreclosures will do to banks’s capital cushions.

Once a foreclosure occurs, not only does the capital write down take place, but the local property tax liability accrues to the bank; prior to foreclosure, the liability is to the nominal home owner and/or property. Once the bank takes possession, its on them.

Hence, you can see why “Extend & Pretend” is so attractive to the large institutions sitting on massive REO inventory, enormous bad loans and CDOs, and huge future local tax obligations.
---Barry Ritholtz

No comments:

Post a Comment