I see a better start to 2011 supported by some positive technical patterns; however, I see a much more difficult second half. Today, bullish sentiment has reached levels last seen in 2007 and risk is much higher than most imagine. I continue to believe we are in a long-term secular bear market cycle. Secular bears tend to last a long time (the shortest in the last 113 years lasted 17 years). The current secular bear started in March 2000. Given the fundamental backdrop, I suspect that the current secular bear has another seven to ten years before a bottom is found. I expect a period of choppy to sideways action - some great rallies, some painful declines, with nominal net progress for the traditional buy-and-hold investor. As Bill Gross pointed out in his October letter, “a future of low investment returns, and a heap of trouble for those expecting more, is what lies ahead”.
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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich
Monday, January 3, 2011
Prop. source: I continue to believe we are in a long-term secular bear market cycle. Secular bears tend to last a long time (the shortest in the last 113 years lasted 17 years)
From principal at proprietary alternative strategies firm: