I struggle mightily to come up with +200,000 [new jobs (in 2011)] a month. Note that I stretched in several places to be purposely optimistic, tossing out bad months at the beginning of the year, etc. If everything goes right, perhaps we can add 160,000 jobs a month, but that assumes I am way off on the education component.
If the economy does add 160,000 private jobs a month, depending on government cutbacks, the will barely drop, and in fact might not even drop at all.
At +100,000 to +125,000 total jobs a month, the unemployment rate will likely rise. Given all the tremendous risks, the economy might not add that.
--- A lot of data and more commentary in this article by Mish Shedlock