Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Rosenberg Daily - Outtakes

  • There continues to be talk of housing stabilizing, which is impossible at the current time based on the prevailing massive amount of excess inventory.
  • The reality is that this is the weakest recovery ever in terms of the growth rate in real final sales and as it pertains to employment, housing, and organic personal income, there has not really been any recovery at all. Every single measure of consumer and small business sentiment is locked in recession terrain
  • This will be a long war and along the way, before we get the real policy-induced inflationary credit cycle that turns the secular bull market in bonds into a bear market, yields at the curve are going to drop to levels that will literally freak everyone out
  • Our strategy since the Fed cut rates to zero in late 2008 has been S.I.R.P. (Safety and Income at a Reasonable Price) ...
    • Tack onto that strategy the items that will benefit from the reflationary policies...
    • a focus on precious metals also makes good sense. 
    • Classic hedge fund strategies that aim to limit the inherent volatility in the equity market during these deleveraging phases is also key...
    • And of course, a focus on yield — well diversified hybrids that combine preferreds with bonds and trusts and royalties and reliable dividend streams are as good as gold. 
    • And it’s a very good thing that corporate balance sheets are in such good shape and that the maturity calendar has been pushed into the future with all the refinancing activity that has gone on so that we can also dip a few toes into credit strategies...
    • The emerging markets are nice and the economies booming, but this is the Wild West in many respects and the way we have preferred to play this secular theme is through exposure to the commodity complex and we are long-term oil bulls — also for geopolitical reasons.
  • ...the major dollar chains are now taking market share away from the Wal-Marts of the world because middle- class households are now shopping at the discount outlets
---link (free subscription rqd) 

No comments:

Post a Comment