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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Rosenberg Daily - Abnormal Recovery

Those that do not see how abnormal this so-called recovery has been, consider that in expansions, consumer confidence averages 102; in recessions, it averages 71; and we are at 50.4 as of July. So basically, the level of consumer confidence is 20 points below what the average level is during a recession and yet virtually everyone dismisses double-dip risks out of hand. Maybe there is no double-dip because we never really fully emerged from the recession that we know officially began in December 2007 – that was certainly the message out of yesterday’s confidence report.
---Rosenberg, 7/28

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