However (always the however), Rosenberg, 7/26: Remember – earnings are over a quarter but tell you nothing about how the momentum moved over the quarter. The second quarter included April, and just about everything in the economy in April was hitting a peak ... but has since slowed. So it could well be that much of Q2 was “front loaded”. Momentum into Q3 has softened dramatically.
A few examples:
- ISM was 60.4 in April and was down to 56.2 in June and likely down to 54 to start Q3.
- Philly Fed was 31.9 in April; was down to 19.6 in June and down to 5.1 to start Q3.
- NY Empire index was 20.2 in April and was down to 8.0 in June; and down to 5.1 in July to start the thir quarter.
- NAHB was 19 in April, fell to 16 by June and was down to 14 as Q3 began. Consumer confidence was 57.7 to start Q2 and closed the quarter at 52.9.
- The NFIB index also started Q2 as 90.6 and finished at 89.