...the Personal Consumption & Housing subcomponent [of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index] remains mired in deeply negative territory. In fact, it has not made a positive contribution to the overall index since December 2006, running negative now for 42 consecutive months.
Sales, Orders and Inventories (which together comprise one category) was the only positive contributor to the overall index, and even that metric only eked out a +0.05 add.
So the growth bulls continue to shoulder the burden of explaining specifically how we can muster a sustainable economic recovery — which is to say at or at least near trend — without the participation of the consumer and the housing market.
---Invictus, 7/26
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