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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Housing: The Gen X, Gen Y factor

Peter Tchir: Housing is Great? Housing is okay. It may even be good, but I don’t see the “greatness”. Sales seemed to have stabilized and maybe even slowed down. Sitting around talking to people, I don’t know anyone who is looking to buy. Rich people buying a second home, I see some of...but I don’t see people looking to buy. Maybe I am talking to the wrong people (and I admit I don’t know many Frackers in the Appalachians) but I can count on one hand the people I have come across looking to buy homes for themselves, but I would need a spreadsheet to track those who are buying things in their portfolios in anticipation others will be buying homes.

I don’t think housing is bad. I think it is stable here. The system is slowly working its way through many of the issues, but the latest idea there is a supply shortage seems more like spin than reality.
Yes in certain areas where economic growth is good, there is a potential shortage of housing. There may even be good locations ava to develop. That is good.

The lower mortgage rates and time have done a lot to clean up the shadow inventory.

On the other hand, people under a certain age, call it 35? Seem to have no interest in buying a home or even having a big place. This is not just because of the bust we saw in housing, but is a function of a “mobile” generation. At one end of the spectrum we have people who live by landline [phones] (and are largely on medicare). In the middle (where many of us probably are) is some mix of cell phone usage, but a deep-set notion that not having a landline is one step away from being homeless. Then there is the new generation, who sees no need to have to deal with a landline. Who could care less about area code because there are no roaming charges based on phone number anymore, who can’t understand why anyone would have two phones (let alone actually use them to talk).

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