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Thursday, January 10, 2013

Rosenberg Daily, return of: Housing boom is all in multi-family

[T]he widespread consensus is very bullish on housing. But the ratio of the builder stocks' market cap to single-family construction spending is at an all-time high. Hence caution may be warranted...The housing rebound has been in rentals. The recovery in “singles" is almost nonexistent!. In fact, there is not an area in the country that has managed to post a meaningful recovery in construction. And yet the homehuilding stocks are hehaving as if we are in a boom!...[T]he level of new home sales is at or below that of prior recessions. There has been absolutely no recovery at all in the Northeast, so whatever pickup there has been has been in the highly distressed areas of the South and the West where the bubble and bust were more acute. According to Ziliow, even with the nascent recovery in home values, 28% of all single-family homes are owned by folks who are in the unfortunate position of being in a negative net equity position.

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