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Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Rosenberg Daily - No Recession Call

Rosie spends today taling about the bullish indicators noted by Weisenthal, below, but still notes the economy is punk.
The pace of economic activity is weakening, with all deference to ISM. With profits faltering and wage earnings slowing down, we have a situation where Gross Domestic Income softened to a mere 1.7% annual rate in Q2 from 6.1% in Q1 and 4.6% in Q4 of last year, This was the weakest performance since the third quarter of 2009 just as the worst recession in seven decades was ebbing. In real terms, GDI actually stagnated — up a mere 0.16% annual rate, a buzz-cut from the 3.8% pace in Q1 and 4.5% in 04, again the weakest tally since Q3 last year and the second weakest since Q2 2009. This puts the GDP slowdown in Q2 into perspective. GDP is all about spending GDI is all about income. And it is income that drives confidence, spending, and ultimately prosperity.
Still, he is not calling for a Recession. He has mentioned it from time to time before, (eg) but no specific call.

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