Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Rosenberg Daily - Why Krugman's Latest Book's Title is "End This Depression Now"

The government spigots have been turned on to such an extent that if this were a normal plain-vanilla cycle, the economy would have ballooned at an 8% average annual rate since the Great Recession ended three years ago...The fact that it has expanded at barely over a 2% pace - the weakest recovery ever speaks to the secular headwinds from debt-burdened household balance sheets. eroding housing-related wealth, structural unemployment and retrenchment at the state and local government level.
  • 65% of the incoming economic data overthe past two months have come in below expected.
  • Household survey employment has contracted for two straight months. 
  • The labour force participation rate has plunged to a 30-year low.
  • Strip out weather effects in Q1, and we see that real GDP actually stagnated and that real final sales fell at a 1% annual rate (John Hussman may in fact be correct).
  • Real wage-based incomes have declined in each of the past two months and in four of the past five.
  • The number of people on food stamps, disability beneƱts and the number that have withdrawn completely from the labour force have never been as high as they are today.
  • Consumer confidence levels remain at levels that in the past were consistent with recessionary phases.
  • The scars from the detonation of the housing and credit bubble-bust have yet to heal. Household net worth per capita is still 15% or $100.000 shy of where it was five years ago
  • The median age of the boomer if 55 and going on 56 and retirement is the darkness at the end of the tunnel, As such. the trend towards second jobs, do-it-yourself, private labels, dollar stores, maintaining your existing vehicle, downsizing your real estate requirements, cocooning and overall frugality will continue unabated.
  • A University of Michigan study that was just published found that one fifth of households owe more on their credit cards, student loans, medical bills and other unsecured debt than they have in savings. And the share of households with no savings at all has risen to 23.4% from 18.5% in 2009 when the recession was coming to an end.
[Liberal reformatting from original applied by Vitus]

No comments:

Post a Comment