- Dodging a bullet does not mean we’re out of dodge
- As a standalone piece of data, the jobs number was sub-par and the big picture is one of rapidly decelerating employment growth
- While the bulls will undoubtedly cling to today’s jobs data and say that all is actually just fine with the U.S. economy, what they are not assessing is the primary trend line in private payrolls. It is slowing and slowing fast
- Within the payroll report itself, one of the big surprises was manufacturing and the retail sector
- The Canadian employment number was soft on the headline but on net the details were decent. Employment may be a lagging or coincident indicator but it is flagging that as far as the Canadian labour market is concerned, there is considerable momentum, at least in the critical business sector
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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich