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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Friday, April 1, 2011

Employment Report

March saw better than expected job gains of 216k vs expectations of 190k and the private sector added 230k jobs, 24k above estimates. There was a net upward revision of 7k to the prior two months but positively by 44k in the private sector. The unemployment rate ticked down .1% to 8.8% as the Household survey said 291k jobs were added vs a 160k increase in the size of the labor force. The all in rate fell to 15.7% from 15.9%. The disappointment within the data was a zero increase in average hourly earnings for the 4th month in the past 5 just as the cost of living continues to hit record highs.
---Peter Boockvar

And - Krugman:   There has been some celebrating over the jobs report, and for sure 200,000 jobs is better than 100,000, or none at all.

But still: here’s the employment-population ratio - We need much more than this:

Update: Ritholtz comments: This month, consensus estimates are for 190,000 net job gains. In a normal economic cycle, this would be considered a soft number, barely greater than the 150k need to stay ahead of population growth. However, in a post credit crisis economy, where GDP remains middling and job creation is not robust, this is considered a decent number. To really move the needle on Unemployment, 300-400k per month (or better) is what is required

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