Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Thursday, February 10, 2011


The JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover) data just came out for December and confirmed our thoughts that this U.S. labour market is still very sluggish. Consider these:
  • Job openings fell 139k in December after a 126k decline in November and are now down in four of the past five months.
  • New hires fell 30k and this too occurred after a 35k loss in November. Since last May, hires are down almost 400k or 9% and somehow we are supposed to be buying into the view of a major job market turnaround.
  • At least firings are declining — as the jobless claims data would indicate. Layoffs fell 16k but since last May have only declined 66k. In other words, the pace of hiring is declining at a rate that exceeds the drop in layoffs by a factor of 6. That is absolutely incredible.

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