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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

7% U.S.GDP Growth in 2011?

As nuts as it might seem, 7% U.S. GDP is apparently Goldman's outlier GDP growth scenario for 2011.
But it is also possible that consumption could swing unexpectedly in the [positive] direction. "The biggest risk is that, once the private sector deleveraging comes to an end, you're going to see a very large boost to demand," says Mr Hatzius.
If the US populace really does begin to catch up on consumption after three miserable years then growth could hit 6 per cent or even 7 per cent in 2011. The chances of that remain modest - but if it happens then the boost to confidence may feed on itself and the nastiest US downturn in decades might truly start to feel as if it is over.
More here.
---Paul Kedrosky

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