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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
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Friday, July 30, 2010

Rosenberg Daily - Forward GDP growth at 1.2% or less?

If indeed, the inventory cycle is behind us, then what we have on our hands is an underlying baseline trend in GDP of 1.2% at an annual rate. And if we are correct in our assumption that the looming withdrawal of fiscal stimulus at the federal level and the cutbacks at the state and local government level subtract 1.5% from growth in the coming year, then it begs the question: How exactly does the economy escape a renewed moderate contraction over the next four to six quarters, barring some unforeseen positive boost? In turn, how does a strong possibility of such a contraction square with consensus views of a 35% surge in corporate profits to new record highs as early as next year? The answers to these questions are as painful as they are obvious.
---Rosenberg, 7/30

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