Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Corporate Cash Hord: No Double-Dip?

I've been bloging about all the downers in the economy - primarily jobs, housing, and credit.  Many indicators are down.  GDP growth Q1 was revised down from 5.6% to 3%.  Consensus is for about 2-ish percent Q2.  Blah Blah.

A main factoid that most of we doom-sayers ignore is that most largish US companies are sitting on piles of cash - BEA estimates $1.6T of it.  If companies decided to spend all at once - what a stimulus!  This cash hord at bigger companies is unprecedented for recessions.  On the basis of that, one would think all we need is the will to grow.  (Small companies do most of the hiring - that's another matter.)

So the cash hord is one reason I think that there may not be a disasterous double-dip recession.  I have said frequently, we will just be in a grinding "L" shaped recovery for years, as housing, jobs, regulation, politics, banks and credit, Europe, and Israel all "work themselves out".

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