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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Jeremy Siegel. Extra-Terrestrial?

"I expect that the U.S. economy will continue to surprise on the upside and that equities will continue to outperform, with full-year gains of 15% to 20% not out of the question. Although there will be setbacks along the way, both the economy—and the stock market—will emerge from the financial crisis stronger than before. In my opinion, even Washington’s meddling in the economy will not stop this bull market."
---Jeremy Siegel, Q1 Comentary

20% gain for Calendar 2010 would be a 27% gain from here on the S&P.  I just received the commentary at the link.  Maybe JS does not hold these views 2/3 of the way into the 2nd Quarter?  Anyway, boy, this is a stretch.  He reports "stocks are now selling about 15 times this year’s earnings".   I think this is what he is talking about.  As reported below, via Rosenberg, the 10-year trailing S&P PE is 21, and at this level the market always has corrected substantially.

Siegel's Stocks for the Long Run has been described by the other Jeremy (Grantham) as a very dangerous book.  Maybe not, if Siegel is talking about the very very long run.  The S&P total return, as we know, is flat for the last 12 or so years.

And we all know what Keynes said about the long run:  "The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead."  Maybe Keynes is not taught at Wharton.

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