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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Friday, August 14, 2009

Housing due for (another) drop?

One piece of data that just came out to very little fanfare was the U.S. foreclosure data for July — hitting a record 360,149, which is up 7.0% MoM and up 32% from the shocking figures from a year ago, so this is shocking multiplied by 1.32x. And, this is occurring despite the pressure tactics being deployed by the White House on the lending community to keep defaulted people in their homes. If there is a possible surprise to the market from now to year-end, it could well be another leg down in home prices as this new supply hits the market because there is a universal belief out there that residential real estate has hit a bottom (a view reinforced by what Toll Brothers had to say about its most recent quarter).

Rosenberg 8.14.09 (my italics)

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