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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Friday, July 10, 2009

What to do now

But look at what happened from the March 19 interim peak to the October 9 low in 2002. As the market retreated to new lows as the recovery was aborted, sector leadership changed hands away from the early cyclicals towards the defensives, volatility rose sharply, credit spreads did widen for a time as U.S. Treasuries rallied substantially. The only items that managed to stay above water were commodities and gold, ostensibly because the Asian economies at the time managed to hold together as well as the renewed decline in the U.S. dollar – if you are looking for some cyclical exposure, these may be areas to focus on. Outside of these, the name of the game is capital preservation and income-orientation.

Rosenberg, 7.10. My italics.

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