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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

health care, tech and telecom...

...everything we see around us smacks of a bear market rally. Real bear markets never ever end with price-to-book, price-to-earnings, dividend yields, real corporate bond yields or sentiment readings at the level they have been for most of this year.
...in terms of screening for sectors right now that provide the best attributes in terms, of earnings growth, revision momentum, and yield, we would have to say that health care, tech and telecom services screen the best.
...Look at Chart 3, it shows how the S&P 500 enjoyed that great bounce in early 2002 and hit the 1,172 level on January 4th of that year and then tested the interim high on March 11th (1,170), but the test failed and that was all she wrote as the market slid 33.6% over the next six months. What do we have on our hands today — a very similar post-oversold-low bounce-and-sputter. The S&P 500 closed at 946 on June 12, 2009, and after a brief downswing it rallied to close at 940 on July 16th. One can never be too sure about these things, but this does look very much like the failed retest in early 2002 — though this analysis will be an exercise in futility if we do break to a new high soon. Suffice it to say — we are at a critical juncture. With perfect hindsight, we can safely say it sent off one of the greatest ‘head fakes’ in recorded history.

--- Rosenberg 7.20.09

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