When the equity markets are in a "bull move," one thing investors watch is the Advance/Decline numbers to see if the rally has good participation or if it is being driven by merely a few key stocks like it was in late 1999 and early 2000. Yet, after being range-bound for much of 2012, the S&P 500 Cumulative A/D Line has broken out on the upside and is at a new rally high. Also confirming that the markets have more room on the upside is the Selling Pressure Index that resides at new multi-month lows. However, the Buying Power Index is lagging, suggesting last week's rally was more about a lack of sellers rather than earnest buying. Speaking to sectors, Healthcare (+3.29%), Consumer Services (+3.14%), Consumer Goods (+2.72%), and Telecommunications (+2.29%) were the best performers and have left 8 of the 10 macro sectors trading in overbought territory. Along that same line, the SPX is still pretty stretched on a short- term basis, trading at roughly 10% above its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, the market's daily internal energy level was somewhat depleted by last week's rally, and the weekly internal energy indicator is only half way charged up. Putting it all together suggests that while the equity markets may pause/pullback on this morning's China news, there is nothing in the "tea leaves" suggesting a repeat of the double-digit declines that began in the spring of the last three years.
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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich
Monday, April 15, 2013
Rally intact we think
A guy we like and have been following (at Raymond James -Yikes...) says the following this AM: