Kevin Lane: Majority market opinion is calling for a correction or using the industry’s most over used term, “overbought.” The current street banter seems to center on the theme equities are overbought, speculation is rampant and it’s a stock love fest. However, our experience is that we have never seen a significant correction when everyone is talking about how “overbought” the market is or how stocks are way “too extended.” We find it hard to believe that after hiding under a rock for nearly five years, that a few months of equity inflows means investors have gone from petrified to exuberant. That process in our opinion is a longer arc, not a singular event. While clearly markets can and will have pullbacks. We think the overbought chatter comes from many investors rationalizing aloud why they are under-invested.
Also, see this. Note the chart. At Vitus, we think this is a persuasive chart. (However, note the log scale).
Qualification: We are guaranteed to have several vary gut-wrenching pullbacks in the medium term (over the next three years).
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