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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Monday, October 1, 2012

Rosenberg Daily - Data Points

  • Euro area bank lending has contracted 0.6% YoY as of August. The economic optimism index fell to 85 in September from 86.1 in August.
  • The data remain horrendous, with French motor vehicle registrations collapsing 18% on a YoY basis in September. German VDMA machine orders sagged 2% MoM in August and are now down 11% from yearago levels — export orders are off 6% but the real negative surprise was the 18% plunge in domestic bookings which match the worst we ever saw in the awful 2009 global recession.
  • Personal income in the United States was weak, edging up a meagre 0.1% in August versus the +0.2% consensus estimate and the similar measly 0.1% gain the prior month (revised down. by the way, from +0.3%).
  • The Chicago PMI came in below expectations at 49.7 in September, losing ground for the second consecutive month and well below the 53 reading in August and also the estimated 52.8 — not to mention the first time below the 50 cut-off mark for contraction since September 2009.
  • The final estimate [for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for September] came in at 78.3, lower than the advance reading of 79.2 and also below expectations for 79.
  • [The FT said that] QE3 is essentially trying to force savers, retirees, companies with strong balances, [and] pension and insurance funds into riskier assets or to spend their money. The various members of this constituency lack an appetite to roll the dice and seek greater risk, posing a challenge to the Fed.

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