Lose: Buy Facebook
Make: Sell Facebook
Vitus prediction: In six months, FB will sell below offer. FB, after the offer hype, begins to loose ground perceptibly to Google and Apple.
This is a perfect long-short market-neutral trade (after the first few weeks of frenzy). Long goog/aapl; short FB. If Twitter were public, that would be more perfect. (What is more perfect that perfect?) Vitus will cover your losses eat crow if you loose on this trade.
What is the business? Advertising? Many are much better at it. To whom is FB advertising? Bunch 'o high school kids sharing their exciting life experiences. What else does FB have? There is talk about Zuckerberg's vision. We've yet to run across a cogent description thereof.
Update: Some folks agree.
Chart from WSJ via Ritholtz