Rosenberg Daily: Miles To Go

• The nascent job market improvement was little more than a reflection of deteriorating productivity growth. As such, companies will respond in the spring by curbing their hiring plans...
• The ballyhooed housing recovery represented a weather report. January was the fourth warmest on record, skewing the data, and February looks to be a record for balmy temperatures. As such, we could be in for a setback in the housing data, and the latest weekly data on mortgage applications for new purchases may already be signaling a renewed downturn in sales activity...
• The European recession is just getting started (See Recession Looms for 10 Nations on page 2 of the FT) and the impact on Asian trade flows is already evident in the data — with Chinese export growth completely vanishing in January and manufacturing diffusion indices flashing modest contraction in February...
• What upset the apple cart this time last year was the run-up in oil prices, followed by a lag with a surge in gas prices at the pump...
• [T]he top marginal personal tax rate rises to 39.6% from 35% as the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012. A limit on itemized deductions will add a further 1.2 percentage points to the top rate...
• Markets have treated Greece’s default with a shrug. But what if a CDS event does get triggered? It is possible. And what if Portugal decides that it wants its bail-out terms renegotiated, as the FT hints at? Spain is doing likewise as well — see Spain Pushes Brussels to Cut Deficit Target as Growth Hopes are Dashed on the front page of the FT...