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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Richmond Fed Index Points To Recession

From Rosenberg
The Richmond Fed index is the latest September data-point to come in on the weak side.
  • ...this diffusion measure of industrial activity came in at “only” -6 from -10 in August... this was the third month in a row (and four of the past five) that this index lined up in negative terrain, which last happened when the economy was plumbing the depths of recession in the summer of 2009.
  • Order books are really sagging: from 0 in June to -5 in July to -11 in August to -17 in September [which] was the weakest since April 2009.
  • Hiring intentions for the next six months slid to 3 from 5 in August, 14 in July and 22 in June for yet another distinct pattern — down to 18-month lows. 
  • Capex spending plans fell to their lowest level since July 2009 to 5 from 10 in August, 16 in July, 22 in June, 29 in May, and 31 in April.
  • [From the Richmond Fed's] companion survey of service-sector firms — revenues sagged to a three-month low of -4 from -1 in August and is in recession terrain along with its manufacturing counterpart.
  • The index measuring “retail shopper traffic” was absolutely awful as it was down to a 12-month low of -32 from already weak readings of -11 in both August and July.
  • [The] component assessing “big ticket sales” went from -25 in July to -40 in August to a seven-month low of -48 in September... this does not bode well for this year’s holiday shopping season

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