Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Vitus view of the medium/long term remains tepid. So does Rosenberg's

Rosie today (ibid): I still believe that across many economic indicators, this goes down as a horrible recovery, especially in view of all the stimulus. Of course things look much better than they did in the “double dip” risk days of last summer but absent the impact of the GDP deflator’s collapse and the decline in the savings rate, Q4 real GDP would have actually come in closer to +0.5% SAAR than the posted +3.2% print.

While there are some pockets of vigour, I think the macro backdrop is still overall tepid by the standards of past second-year recoveries and the huge imbalances in the economy have still not been redressed. Usually at this stage of the expansion, we are seeing real GDP growth rates in excess of 5% and with far less government aid.

No comments:

Post a Comment