- Oil. [After good discussion (see link) about the Middle East] ...there is still more near-term upside potential than downside risk for the oil price (and most energy stocks).
- Inflation. It is very difficult to spread any sort of commodity-related inflation through the pricing system with labour costs and bank credit in contraction mode.
- Personal Income. ...what we are going to likely face is a decline in real personal incomes barring a more decisive recovery in the U.S. labour market. ...This, as far as I can tell, is far from being priced into consumer discretionary stocks at the current time.
- Commodities and Equities. ...for investors ... what is key is the prospect of sustained increases in commodity prices in the near- and intermediate term, coupled with greater risk aversion ...the odds of a significant pullback here in the U.S. equity market are fairly sizable, in my view....Even a 10% correction would only take the S&P 500 back to where it was at the end of November
- Housing. ...median home prices collapsed 5.9% in January and at $158,800, now stand at the lowest level since April 2002 and down over 30% from the 2006 peak.
Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich