As nuts as it might seem, 7% U.S. GDP is apparently Goldman's outlier GDP growth scenario for 2011.
But it is also possible that consumption could swing unexpectedly in the [positive] direction. "The biggest risk is that, once the private sector deleveraging comes to an end, you're going to see a very large boost to demand," says Mr Hatzius.More here.
If the US populace really does begin to catch up on consumption after three miserable years then growth could hit 6 per cent or even 7 per cent in 2011. The chances of that remain modest - but if it happens then the boost to confidence may feed on itself and the nastiest US downturn in decades might truly start to feel as if it is over.