The IEA now sees all forms of oil, conventional and unconventional, hitting a high of 99 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2035 (including 3 mbd of "refinery gains"). Of course, we may wish to take even this tepid estimate of growth in oil supplies with a grain of salt, because in every annual report, like clockwork, the IEA has been ratcheting down its estimate of how much oil we'll have in the future:
Assuming that this trend will continue, our prediction is that next year the estimate of future oil supplies will be ratcheted down one more notch. Perhaps by another 6 mbd, to match the difference between the 2009 and 2010 reports?
It's when we eyeball the graph that shows us the breakdown in petroleum sources by type that a few important details jump out at us:
Bill: I'm not sure what "New Policies Scenario" means. Still, the chart speaks for itself. This stuff is not news, but I find it useful to shock myself from time to time by looking at it.
---Chris Martenson, Minyanville, today