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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Tidbits from Proprietary Source: Stocks, Bonds, The Fed, Trading. Employment looks up a bit!

A big miss from the ADP report was a big factor no doubt [on gold rallying yesterday] . However the looming QE 2 is still the story. ... this is a ton of mileage for an event that hasn’t occurred yet. Is this one of the great “buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenarios of all time? The markets seem so sure the fed is going to act soon, but if so why are they waiting?

The bond market did see profit taking later in the day but all maturities still finished up. ADP at - 39k was a big disappointment; many were hoping recent private sector gains were the start of a new trend. Trading wise, the weak number does not necessarily mean Friday’s payroll number will be just as bad.

Treasury markets have lost some sanity for now with rates so low. It’s hard to believe that the market would attract any retail interest at these rates....[Sometimes shorts get trashed in this scenario] but before being lured in, remember with the fed in buying treasuries, selling treasuries and subsidizing the dealer market we are dealing with a “fixed” market place. Right now the fed wants lower rates and higher equity prices, so that is what we shall do.
Monster employment index recorded its eighth consecutive month of positive year/year growth during September with a growth of 16%.

Online recruitment activity rose in eight and held steady in five of the 20 industries between August and September

All major metropolitan markets tracked by the Index exhibit positive annual growth Service related industries - health care and social assistance; and professional, scientific, and technical services rise in September

Annual growth remains stable for manufacturing; and transportation and warehousing between August and September

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