If I was going to publish a bullish report on the U.S. economy, it certainly wouldn’t be based on consumption, employment or housing. It would be based on innovation, patents, and the likelihood that the U.S. is embarking on a manufacturing renaissance of sorts — partly reflecting the new permanently higher level of energy prices, which has negatively affected globalization, years of U.S. dollar depreciation, which has helped act as a protective tariff for local producers as well as a major competitive boost.
Remember how aviation technology accelerated dramatically in the 1930s depression? Nothing is to say that we can’t see major advances in coming years in energy, medical and transportation technologies even as the economy continues to struggle with expunging all the debt and spending excesses of the last cycle. I have no problem with reports that are bullish on specific themes but at the same time I strongly feel that we should treat reports that shamelessly attempt to downplay the very serious and complex headwinds in the U.S. labour and housing markets, with the utmost of skepticism ---Rosenberg