Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Rosenberg: Housing continues decline

The National Association of Home Builders housing market index was at 22 in
May, 16 in June, 14 in July and now 13 in August.  Moreover, the forward-looking
NAHB index essentially guaranteed that we will be on the hook for another round
soft housing data ahead.

At 13, the NAHB index is now at the low-water mark for the year and the worst
result since the economy was detonating in April 2009.  Buyer traffic is barely
showing a pulse even with the bond market working so hard to take mortgage
rates to record lows — the subindex remained at 10 and is just three points away
from matching an all-time low.

Sales expectations sank to 18 from 21, well off the nearby high of 27posted last
May ahead of the tax goodie expiry date, and at its lowest level since March
2009 (pre-dating the green-shoot era).  August 17, 2010 – BREAKFAST WITH DAVE

To put the NAHB into some context, in expansions it averages 55.5.  In
recessions, it averages 25.0.  And today, it is sitting at 13.0.  Draw your own
conclusions on what we should label the cycle we are in.
---Rosenberg, 8/17

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