The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has fallen at an annualized rate of 3% a year over the past 10 years, including dividends and controlling for inflation. Long-term Treasury bonds show a gain of 5% a year during that same period, after inflation. Gold is up 10% a year and real-estate investment trusts 8% a year. The S&P 500 index itself, without adjusting for inflation and dividends, is stuck today at a level it first reached 12 years ago, meaning it has gone nowhere in more than a decade, scaring a legion of people in the process.
---ES Browning, Wall Street Journal, "Small Investors Flee Stocks", 7/12
Will there ever be a bull market again? Yes. Rosenberg thinks earliest date for the end of the bear is 2016. As your duty curmudgeon, I'd say 2018 at least (with some impressive, sharp bear rallys embedded).
Post a Comment