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Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
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Friday, July 9, 2010

Consumer Credit - latest

We had some eye-popping consumer credit numbers yesterday with the Fed reporting that consumer credit plunged $9.1 billion in May (missing consensus estimates to the downside by 5x). On top of this, there were major downward revisions to the April data, which were taken down from +$1.0 billion to -$14.9 billion. .In fact, once all the revisions are taken into account, credit actually came in $22 billion below consensus estimates for the month!

This is clearly signaling that consumer spending is slowing and that the just- released July consensus figures for Q2 and H2 consumer spending may still be too high (at 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively)

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