As for the markets, everything seems to be bouncing off the 50-day moving average – the S&P 500, oil, and the U.S. dollar. The stock market is down 2% for the year in what looks to be a very important topping formation. That was not expected at the start of the year, that much is for sure.
...At current yield levels (1.9% on the 5-year?), the Treasury market is screaming deflation. If it is right, not only is the consensus estimate of a new peak in corporate earnings in danger, but so is the key 1,040 technical threshold on the S&P 500.