Welcome to the Vitus Capital Blog!
Notes to myself, possibly of interest to others.
-- Bill Northlich

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Housing showing 30% overvaluation

The latest Shiller data just came out and shows the normalized P/E ratio on the S&P 500 to be 21.3x. The long-run mean is 16.4x, so if you are buying the market today, you are buying it a 30% premium to what was considered to be normal in the past. Some claim that P/E multiples deserve to be high seeing as bond yields and inflation are so low. But even here, when we go back and capture other such periods of low rates and low inflation, the Shiller multiple averages out to be 16x. So, even adjusting for this, the market is overvalued by more than 30% benchmarked against historical norms.

No comments:

Post a Comment